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Only two days before the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold forecast – going beyond the winner overall, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were adding around 200,000 votes into the system every few minutes! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but came two big batches of votes that came in later and his lead went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday went somewhat badly for him, in which the opponent was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. However Mamdani added 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Additionally he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, young, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president previously backed the progressive this year. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to surpass half. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it because afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really was unexpected. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added many conservatives on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I believe occurred a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the property owners and residents supported the independent. So there was a little resistance. But no, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote there was coverage on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential there. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key figures from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – candidates will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that every city in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – because they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.