Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.
Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process
Several members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
