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For a brief period, Donald Trump appeared to adopt a firm approach concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing statements of "severe repercussions" in August if Russia's president persisted hindering ceasefire talks, the former president ultimately enacted considerable penalties on Russia's primary oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move significantly hindered the Russian leader's capacity to fund his military invasion in the region.

Yet, through his recently unveiled detailed peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly developed by US and Russian diplomats lacking Ukraine's or EU input, the former president has apparently reverted to his favorable to Russia approach.

Benefiting Aggression

This initiative would in practice reward the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while placing the country's democracy in danger. Despite ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", much of the plan actually undermine that essential autonomy. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate experience, the former president continues to view the Ukrainian conflict as a simple territorial dispute, as if ceding Russia a portion of Ukrainian land will appease the president. However, Russia's invasion is not only about dominating a destroyed area of economically weakened area in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's obvious goal to eliminate it so it no longer serves as an enticing model for the Russian people of the democratic governance that Putin's deepening autocracy withholds them.

Border Giveaways

Although freezing in status the currently split regions of these areas, Trump's initiative would compel the nation to abandon all of this eastern territory. In addition to benefiting Russia with territory that its troops have been failed to seize in over a decade of conflict, this surrender would render Ukrainian military defenses severely compromised.

This region is the site of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that constitute a key impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, providing Putin a open path to the capital if he eventually decide to restart the conflict.

Defense Restrictions

Additionally, in a move that would make future hostilities more feasible for Russia, the plan would mandate Ukraine to reduce the size of its armed forces from their present approximately 800,000 troops to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's proposal places no such limits on Russian forces.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to characterize the nation's chosen by the people leadership as radicals, the proposal declares: "Every extremist doctrine and activities must be opposed and forbidden." Seemingly to emphasize this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal sets no requirement that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Security Guarantees

To be sure, the initiative has the Russian Federation commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in legislation its stance of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet considering that Putin has broken equivalent agreements in the past – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to honor Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its historical atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a restoration of captured territory in the region to Ukrainian control – why should anyone believe Russia now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international security guarantees. Although the proposal warns of a "strong joint military response" in case Russia renew its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive dependable defense commitments", the specifics include unclear to concerning. The plan would not only prevent the nation accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from deploying forces on the nation's land, thereby blocking the reassurance force, reportedly headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Putin from restoring his diminished forces, restocking, and attacking again.

World Concern

Another supplementary accord according to sources would offer the nation with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any future "significant, intentional, and continuous aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack threatening the tranquility of the allied countries." This implies a defense action. Yet different from a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against future invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of alliance members, including the US administration, to react militarily to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not